Wednesday, November 28, 2007

Huckabee to win the Republican nomination

from TPM

"It looks like Mike Huckabee is starting to catch on with a lot of conservative voters. A new poll from Republican firm Insider Advantage shows Huckabee now taking a strong second against Rudy Giuliani Florida. As for the other Southern conservative in the race, Fred Thompson, it's not going so well.

The numbers: Giuliani 26%, Huckabee 17%, McCain 13%, Romney 12%, Thompson 9%. This represents an 11-point surge for Huckabee since Insider Advantage's last Florida poll in early October — and a ten-point plummet for Thompson."

We were discussing US politics over Thanksgiving (of course) and I was asked who my dark horse candidate was on the Republican side.

My reply: Mike Huckabee

With an endorsement by Chuck Norris, he simply can't loose. I predict he'll take Iowa, propelling him into a number 3 spot in a very tight New Hampshire race. If he wins Iowa and stays competitive in NH then anything's possible for the karate lovin' konservative.

Here is a poll taken after last night's CNN/YouTube debate;
You can watch the debate, with rolling transcript here.
What's interesting may be how these numbers may reflect the mood of self-identified Republican voters. Huckabee was portrayed by the other candidates as the "liberal Republican." There is an undeniable shift to the left across the general population. Whether this translates into more liberal or progressive government is yet to be seen. I've been reading a fascinating book by David Paletz and Robert Entman, "Media, Power, and Politics." Paletz was a an American Fulbright scholar at SDU back when it was Odense University. Their thesis is that "the silent conservative majority" has always been a myth and that the majority of Americans have always been more populist or liberal than political parties and the media portray.

Huckabee: 32%
Romney: 16%
Giuliani: 12%
McCain: 10%
Thompson: 7%
Paul: 6%
Tancredo: 2%
Hunter: 0%
Rest: undecided
Huckabee: 44%
Giulani: 18%
Romney: 13%
McCain: 10%
Thompson: 5%
Paul: 4%
Hunter: 1%
Tancredo: 1%
Rest: undecided