Wednesday, January 30, 2008

(some) Florida Primary Results

A McCain nomination is Democrats worst nightmare.

Several months ago, McCain was virtually on life support, so what happened? David Nye chalks it up to Ponce de Leon's Fountain of Youth.

1.9 million people turned out for Republicans vs 1.7 million turnout for Democrats. This is the first primary/caucus this cycle where Democrats did not turn out more voters than Republicans.

* Lower Democratic turnout could be due to delegates not counting towards the convention. However, Florida has been a fairly solid Republican state and generally conservative.

A democrat has only won 2 of the last 8 general elections in the delegate rich state, Carter '76 and Clinton '96.

Female voters continue to be a factor both for Clinton and generally as a voting block. 59% of Democratic voters were women, compared to 44% Republicans. This has been the general trend in all primaries. The general election could see the highest number of female voters ever (should Clinton be the nominee). The question then is how many more men will go out and vote against her?

Also, Clinton is pleading with the Party to have the Florida delegates counted at the convention.

I'll never forget when I heard the Danish Ambassador to Washington say McCain was his kind of politician. I'm not quite sure what he meant.

But one thing seems certain with Giuliani dropping out of the race, there is no longer room for social liberals/moderates in the Grand Ol' Party.

Finally, John Edwards finished with a decent 14%, all things considered. This is one of the many reasons I hope he stays in the race.